I googled Huckabee for the first time in a long time and some stuff is popping up. He's quitting his 3 hour radio show (not the hourly cut ins) to focus on different ventures... but he won't say what. He's not denying another run and I see he's meeting with other political groups in Iowa and South Carolina. He also just won an SC poll. ARE WE BACK???????

I'm being (VERY) cautiously optimistic. He seems warmer to the idea and he's actually said he's giving it a serious look. He won a poll in South Carolina, followed by Jeb Bush and Chris Christie, with no one else even registering about double digits. Of course, he'll always be welcome in Iowa, but needless to say, I'll be checking in here more as time goes on.

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I share Huck's birthday...I was a few years too late though

The Best Way to possibly get Mike to run again is for us to start now and develop a strong national grassroots organization to support him. As we all know Mike will not be able to raise anywhere near the money others will be able to raise but VOTES always trumps money. Then if Mike chose not to run we would have a strong national group to support candidates, especially Senate candidates that have a chance to beat a Democrat and retake the Senate

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Here's an exclusive video of Huckabee discussing the prospects of a run in 2016.

http://blogs.cbn.com/thebrodyfile/archive/2013/12/13/video-exclusive-mike-huckabee-tells-brody-file-theres-an-openness.aspx

It's a good clip...I think he's really considering it.

Chris is getting more active in the FaceBook HuckPAC group and just posted the NEW http://www.HuckPAC.com website is up. I'm getting very hopeful.

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Psalms 144:1 "Blessed be the LORD my strength, which teacheth my hands to war, and my fingers to fight:"

1.) Is he now positioned to be the bridge between the anti-establishment fears of the Tea Party "Republicans" and the Establishment fears that a Cruz or Paul candidacy will leave the path to the White House open to the Dems (Hillary)?

2.) Will the broad anti-elite populism of the Tea Party "Republicans" (including economic), and the social conservatism of most in their ranks (including on traditional marriage and religious liberty) hold sway over the more doctrinaire libertarian strain with its more secular world view (and its desire for an end to "culture war")?


If the moneymen answer question one as, "YES," then Mike's considerable political talents, especially in debate, could deal with the second.

I think this has been the long-term strategy since 2009.

Chance he'll run...60%.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Now would be a prime time for Huckabee to run. The GOP is in a state of civil war, with the establishment on one side, and the tea party on the other. While they are busy wiping each other out, Huckabee could come in and sweep up the pieces.

Once, long time ago, I thought Huck wouldn't be able to run in 2016 because of a strong bench. However, Things have changed. The strong bench ended up tainting itself by either going tea party or establishment.

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Veni, vidi, vici.

I'm glad to see some activity on this forum again I'm watching these developments closely from where I am in Sweden.

I wonder how a Huckabee 2016 campaign would be different from the one in 2008? Does anybody have any guesses? Less/more focus on social issues? Would he still run on the FairTax? What stance would he take on illegal immigration (given the growing non-white voter demographic)?

A 2016 campaign would seemingly be far less focused on terrorism and foreign policy, and more on the size of government. Huckabee could capitalize on Ron Paul's absence and carry the banner of the Liberty Movement, albeit in a mainstream-friendly way. If Huck is smart, he'll envelope all his social stances in terms of liberty and volunteerism. We know where he really stands either way. I mean this seriously - Huckabee NEEDS to scavenge the remains of the Paul campaign before Rand snatches them all up. What the Paul campaign did in some caucuses was no small feat.

Huckabee can also sell populist economics in the form of the Guaranteed Minimum Income, an idea big in liberal circles right now. Except, we know this idea as the FairTax Pre-bate!

On immigration, Huckabee needs to change the discussion by saying, "there is no immigration crisis!" There exists a path to citizenship and our focus should be on border enforcement and visa overstays. Huckabee should educate the public on what we're looking for in new citizens, and it's not cheap labor! To pacify big business interests, Huckbee could propose Free Enterprise districts with suspended minimum wage laws and relaxed regulation.

Huckabee could also make big inroads in the black community by campaigning on reforming mandatory minimum sentencing and oppressive narcotics regulation.

Overall, a Huckabee campaign focused on Liberty and Reformation is a winning campaign.

Solid analysis, as always SD. From where I sit, I don't think they moneymen will answer the first question with a "yes" until it becomes clear to them that Christie, Jeb, and even Rubio either aren't running or, if they do, are looking likely to go the way of Rudy Giuliani rather than the way of McCain and Romney. I doubt they'll embrace Huckabee if they have other options they can more easily control, but I think he'll at least be worth a look from a small number of them early on, and eventually we could see more of them flocking from their ideal candidates to Huck if that's their only chance to stop a Rand Paul or a Ted Cruz from winning the nomination.

As for the second question, from the polling I've seen Tea Partiers on the whole have always tended to be mostly social conservatives who've embraced more libertarian sounding messages in the contexts of debates over the size of government and government spending. I'm sure a good chunk of them will be hostile to Huck, especially at the leadership levels of certain organizations, but by and large I think he'll do real well with this group from the outset.

Chances he'll run, in my humble opinion: 70%. Now excuse me while I go dodge the lightning strike for ever so slightly disagreeing with SD. Haha.

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Chris,

The moneymen element is now, as I am sure you know, very much changed post Citizen's United ruling. Just one well heeled true supporter can now sustain a campaign for a very long way (as Foster Friess did for Santorum and Sheldon Adelson did for Gingrich). In the interview Huck gave it is clear that he has recognized this fact and that some of these early encouragers for him to run are of this "mega donor" freelance ilk.

We now have four ways to fund a campaign:

1.) support by the old guard party bundlers for the "preferred" establishment choice or choices

2.) support by the new guard NGO Tea Party bundlers for their "preferred" choice or choices

3.) genuine grassroots social media support (everything from the homeschooler network to Paulophiles to personality driven "boom" candidates (like Huck 2008 or Cain 2012 or Cruz 2016?)

4.) support from freelance kingmakers (like Friess or Adelson)

From what I can tell the first (1) and last (4) are the surest way to quickly amass a big enough war chest early. The others are all very much performance based as the ebb and flow of the campaign throws new folks up or down.


We shall see.

When it comes to the percentage chance Huck will run at this point one must always remember that 83.6% of statistics are made up.

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"As for us, our days of combat are over. Our swords are rust. Our guns will thunder no more. The vultures that once wheeled over our heads must be buried with their prey. Whatever of glory must be won in the council or the closet, never again in the field. I do not repine. We have shared the incommunicable experience of war; we have felt, we still feel, the passion of life to its top."

Oliver Wendell Holmes

Christopher Wilkinson,

Interesting analysis! I agree that the liberty argument is the strongest one.

Speaking of foreign policy, I would love it if Huckabee could address the problems with the European Union. Here's the thing: The European Union is no longer legitimate. It lacks the support of the people of Europe, but due to bureaucracy, nothing can ever change democratically. While the EU has a parliament, the parliament is mainly advisory - the real power lies with the commission, which is not popularly elected. The EU has taken over several of the smaller and poorer countries of the union, demanding dictatorial control over the country's economic policies in exchange for bailouts. The EU is by its nature opposed to independent nationstates, and as conservatives, we ought to support nationstates. The US should seek to negotiate agreements (trade agreements for example) with the individual countries of Europe, but not with the EU in my opinion.

Anyway, so other than that, here are my thoughts about a 2016 campaign:
1) Huckabee needs a broader image. Don't get me wrong - Huckabee should not under any circumstances compromise on any of his social issue stances - but the emphasis, especially early in the campaign, should be to introduce Republican voters to Huckabee's economic ideas, as those are the ones they haven't heard of (everybody already knows Huckabee is a SoCon)
2) He needs to remind people that he was one of few who saw where the economy was headed, back in 2007-08.
3) Huckabee also have to be prepared to answer questions on uncomfortable subjects - such as the clemencies, but also more recent things like his support for Todd Akin.

Ive been reading some encouraging articles about Governor Huckabee's considering another run...and I was also intrigued by the "tease" he gave when he announced he was giving up his radio show because it was taking up 8 to 9 hours a day and didn't leave him free for other considerations. Just wanted everyone to know that Im still on the hucksarmy bandwagon and will do whatever I can to help make this "dream" a reality.

Let's face it: Huckabee didn't run in 2012 because he didn't have the money. He never stopped wanting to be President, he just realized it wasn't possible in 2012. And the more I think about it, the more I think he may have been right. Obama turned out to be a much stronger candidate than expected, the unemployment rate fell more than expected, the supreme court didn't rule against obamacare as we would have expected etc.

His chances are much better in 2016, and if he now has the money necessary to make a run (ie if he managed to convince adelson to support him when they met), then I believe he will run.

Also, check out this poll: http://race42016.com/2013/12/15/poll-wa ... us-survey/
Huckabee has the second highest favorables (+49) out of 10 republicans. Only Paul Ryan does better (+63). Christie, meanwhile, has the lowest favorable rating at a net +21 %, with 30 % disapproving.

More surprisingly, neither Rand Paul nor Ted Cruz is doing much better - they have net approval ratings of +28 and +29, respectively, ranked #8 and #7 out of 10 respectively.

I doubt Ryan is running so his numbers are pretty much irrelevant and probably still somewhat inflated right now because he was VP candidate (remember how high Palin was polling for a while after the 2008 election?).

An outlet for policy papers a la Reagan pre presidency? Always thought that was more of the direction his show should have gone.....


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/12/1 ... 56929.html

What began as a rumor spurred by a Craigslist post looks to becoming a reality. Mike Huckabee is gearing up to launch a news publication, "Huckabee Post." ABC News reports that the former Arkansas governor's newest endeavor is slated for a January 2014 debut, and will cover a host of subjects, from politics to pop culture.

Since ending his radio program, the 2008 Republican presidential candidate has wasted no time in laying groundwork for his next role. He has indicated that he would consider running for president in 2016.

Last week, Mediaite came across a Craigslist post calling for reporters to join Huckabee Post in its New York City and Washington D.C. offices. The listing describes the publication as "a new and exciting online news publication covering news on politics, US, international, media, sports and other general news."

Huckabee's son confirmed the forthcoming publication to ABC News, saying that Huckabee Post would be a “natural extension and expansion” for a political figure whose political career has taken him from the campaign trail to the Fox News studios.

Huckabee Post? Sounds like a good idea I think - great self-promotion and also a great way of making contacts among conservative writers & intellectuals. Which may come useful in '16.

And so it begins........
http://blogs.seattletimes.com/opinionnw ... s-problem/

December 18, 2013 at 6:31 AM

Mike Huckabee’s Maurice Clemmons problem
Posted by Jonathan Martin

If former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is going to run for president in 2016, his campaign is going to have to run through the Forza
coffee shop in Parkland, Wash. That’s where one of Huckabee’s many parolees, Maurice Clemmons, assassinated four Lakewood police officers in 2009, depriving nine children of a parent and setting a national perception that Huckabee abused his powers of clemency.

Huckabee told The New York Times’ Jonathan Martin (the other Jonathan Martin) that he views a 2016 presidential bid as “a real opportunity for me.” The Washington Post quickly called Huckabee “a long shot” because he is a disinterested fundraiser who has credibility problems with the GOP’s fiscal conservatives.

He’s had those problems for a while, but still came in first in the Iowa caucuses in 2008. But back then he didn’t have a Maurice Clemmons problem.
As anyone living here in 2009 will recall, Huckabee became a national story after the officers’ deaths because he freed Clemmons from a 108-year sentence in 2000. Huckabee granted more pardons and commutations – 1,033 – than his three predecessors (including Bill Clinton) combined. Clemmons wasn’t even his most controversial pardon.

As part of a book on the Maurice Clemmons case I co-wrote with Seattle Times reporter Ken Armstrong, I spent a week in Little Rock peeling back Huckabee’s handling of the case. As we detailed in “The Other Side of Mercy: A Killer’s Journey Across the American Divide,” Huckabee viewed clemency as a means to right the wrongs of Arkansas’ racial history. A fine goal, but he failed use it wisely. He did not do the basics with Clemmons – such as contacting the prosecuting attorney for comment – or assuring that Clemmons’ release plan – to move to Seattle – was solid, or even factual (it was neither).

In fact, it doesn’t appear Huckabee even checked out Clemmons’ prison file, which was thick with acts of violence and absent indications of rehabilitation. Here’s how we described it in the book:

In years to come Huckabee would be asked how much he knew about Clemmons’ prison history while weighing his request. Huckabee would tell CNN: “I read the entire file … It was a file this thick … I looked at the file, every bit of it.”

Every bit of it? That seems unlikely. By 2000, Clemmons’ prison file already exceeded a thousand pages. But if Huckabee did read every bit of it, he would have seen a record—dated October 21, 1999—that boiled Clemmons’ stay in prison down to his damning score sheet:

Disciplinaries: Twenty-nine times
Achievements: None
If Huckabee is serious, he’ll have to answer his Maurice Clemmons problem.

But Huckabee didn't let him go, he just gave him a chance to get his case to the parole board. Of course, looking back, the parole board definitely made a mistake. But, hindsight is 20/20.

I'm finally starting to get excited about 2016. In April we moved from Texas back to our home state of Oklahoma. I'm 2 hours from Tulsa & OKC and 3 1/2 from Dallas so I can go to more events this time.

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Huckabee needs to turn this lemon into lemonade by repeating over and over the racial injustice that had caused this highly unfair sentencing in the
Clemmons case. So, the guy turned out to be inbalanced and did the horrific crimes a decade later...IMO, irrelevant as far as Governor Huckabee's involvement. I don't even see how this is being used as an issue.