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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Wed Jun 10, 2015 4:41 pm 
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Ohio

Kasich 19
Walker 13
Carson 13
Bush 12
Rubio 12
Paul 9
Huckabee 6
Cruz 5
Christie 4

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_61015.pdf

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Thu Jun 18, 2015 10:28 am 
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Ohio - Kasich vs. the rest.
Kasich 19
Bush 9
Walker 8
Huckabee 7
Rubio 7
Paul 7
Carson 6
Cruz 6
Christie 3
Perry 2
Santorum 2
Graham 2
Trump 1
Fiorina 1


Florida - Bush vs Rubio
Bush 20
Rubio 18
Walker 9
Carson 7
Huckabee 6
Paul 5
Perry 4
Christie 3
Cruz 3
Trump 3
Fiorina 2
Kasich 1
Jindal 1
Santorum 1


Pennsylvania - no frontrunner
Rubio 12
Paul 11
Bush 10
Carson 10
Walker 9
Santorum 7
Huckabee 6
Christie 6
Cruz 5
Trump 4
Perry, Fiorina, Kasich, Graham 1


6/4 - 6/15

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06182015_Sk32gth.pdf

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Wed Jul 01, 2015 3:38 pm 
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Michigan - middle of the field.

Walker 15
Bush 14
Carson 14
Trump 14
Rubio 9
Huckabee 8
Cruz 5
Christie 5
Paul 4
Fiorina 3
Kasich 3
Santorum 2
Perry 1
Graham 1

Huck fares best in the hypothetical matchup against Clinton after Paul and Walker (-5).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_MI_6302015.pdf

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Fri Jul 24, 2015 11:55 am 
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Florida - with Bush and Rubio in the race, I don't think Gov. Huckabee (or maybe anybody else) has much of a chance of winning that state.

Bush 28
Rubio 16
Walker 13
Trump 11
Huckabee 5
Cruz 4
Paul 3
Kasich 3
Fiorina 2
Carson 1
Jindal 1
Perry 0
Christie 0
Graham 0
Santorum 0

https://t.e2ma.net/webview/fe2ue/a12adeab8e567e17eea79fe807c41ea4

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 9:20 pm 
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Who is gonna derail the Trump & Carson Express?

Florida

Trump 29
Carson 25
Bush 19
Rubio 6
Fiorina 5
Cruz 3
Kasich 3
Huckabee 2
Walker 1
Paul 0
Christie 2
Jindal 1
Perry 0
Graham 0

http://savannahnow.com/elections/2015-09-04/poll-clinton-trump-lead-florida

Georgia

Trump 34
Carson 25
Bush 11
Huckabee 5
Walker 2
Cruz 6
Kasich 3
Rubio 2
Christie 2
Paul 0
Fiorina 5
Perry 0
Jindal 0
Graham 0

http://jacksonville.com/news/georgia/2015-09-03/story/trump-clinton-still-lead-georgia-leads-are-shrinking-poll-shows

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goalieman
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 11:59 pm 
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I have a theory on these polls that I think is going on. Imagine you're the person being surveyed and the pollster says "I'm going to read off 17 names who are running for the GOP nomination" and they always start with whoever at the moment is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc, place. No one wants to hear 17 names being read off to them, so when they hear a name in the first 2 or 3 mentioned, they voice support for one of them so they don't have to hear the whole list of names. This produces the same results in so many polls, IMO. I'd be willing to bet that if the order of names were changed up, you'd get differing results. I find it interesting that in the Reuters-Ipsos poll, which is done via an internet survey, and thus all the names are listed side by side, Huck did very well in.

Just a theory, but I'm sticking to it. :)

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karrboy84
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Tue Sep 08, 2015 11:59 am 
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goalieman wrote:
I have a theory on these polls that I think is going on. Imagine you're the person being surveyed and the pollster says "I'm going to read off 17 names who are running for the GOP nomination" and they always start with whoever at the moment is in 1st, 2nd, 3rd, etc, place. No one wants to hear 17 names being read off to them, so when they hear a name in the first 2 or 3 mentioned, they voice support for one of them so they don't have to hear the whole list of names. This produces the same results in so many polls, IMO. I'd be willing to bet that if the order of names were changed up, you'd get differing results. I find it interesting that in the Reuters-Ipsos poll, which is done via an internet survey, and thus all the names are listed side by side, Huck did very well in.

Just a theory, but I'm sticking to it. :)

The names are randomized in any phone poll I have ever heard of. How about the theory where people currently are jumping on the bandwagon of the new guys; it happens every cycle. If we learned anything from 2011-12, it is that the people leading right now have no greater shot to win the nomination than those under 5%. The most recent national poll only had 2 guys over 6%!!! Thats insane. This race is not going to come down to Carson vs Trump; its just not. I have more political experience than the two of them combined.
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goalieman
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Tue Sep 08, 2015 6:02 pm 
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karrboy84 wrote:
goalieman wrote:

The names are randomized in any phone poll I have ever heard of. How about the theory where people currently are jumping on the bandwagon of the new guys; it happens every cycle. If we learned anything from 2011-12, it is that the people leading right now have no greater shot to win the nomination than those under 5%. The most recent national poll only had 2 guys over 6%!!! Thats insane. This race is not going to come down to Carson vs Trump; its just not. I have more political experience than the two of them combined.


Do we know for sure that they are randomizing the names in those polls? :wink:

It's just a theory I'm throwing out there and I've made the same point about Trump and Carson as you have here as well.

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:23 am 
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karrboy84 wrote:
The names are randomized in any phone poll I have ever heard of. How about the theory where people currently are jumping on the bandwagon of the new guys; it happens every cycle. If we learned anything from 2011-12, it is that the people leading right now have no greater shot to win the nomination than those under 5%. The most recent national poll only had 2 guys over 6%!!! Thats insane. This race is not going to come down to Carson vs Trump; its just not. I have more political experience than the two of them combined.


Ditto.

:floor

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Thu Sep 17, 2015 9:28 am 
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Not-too-bad numbers for Michigan.

Carson 24
Trump 22
Bush 8
Huckabee 6
Rubio 4
Fiorina 3
Cruz 3
Kasich 2
Walker 2
Christie 1
Paul 2
Santorum 0
Jindal 0

http://www.mlive.com/lansing-news/index.ssf/2015/09/ben_carson_donald_trump_michigan.html

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Peter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 2:59 pm 
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Florida

Trump at 48? Really?

Trump 48
Cruz 16
Rubio 11
Bush 10
Carson 3
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1
Santorum

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/index.aspx#.Vp-0ROjyuUl

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TheValuesVoter
 Post subject: Re: Other Primary Polls
PostPosted: Wed Jan 20, 2016 4:41 pm 
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Peter wrote:
Florida

Trump at 48? Really?

Trump 48
Cruz 16
Rubio 11
Bush 10
Carson 3
Christie 3
Huckabee 3
Paul 3
Kasich 2
Fiorina 1
Santorum

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/index.aspx#.Vp-0ROjyuUl


Too much exposure to the sun.

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